Seven in Ten Farmers Can't Afford to Plant

A new AFBF survey of 5,700 farmers finds seven in ten cannot cover fertilizer costs as Middle East tensions send input prices soaring

30 Apr 2026

Seven in ten American farmers cannot afford enough fertilizer for the 2026 growing season, according to a survey of more than 5,700 producers conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation between April 3 and 11.

The findings reflect a sharp deterioration in farm finances following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in late February. The waterway handles roughly one-third of global seaborne fertilizer. Since then, nitrogen fertilizer prices have risen more than 30 per cent. Urea, a widely used nitrogen compound, is up 47 per cent in two months. Diesel costs have climbed 46 per cent over the same period.

Southern farmers are most exposed. Only 19 per cent locked in supplies before prices rose, leaving 78 per cent unable to afford full inputs now. The Northeast and West report shortfall rates of 69 and 66 per cent respectively. Even in the Midwest, where early purchasing was more common, nearly half of growers face a gap.

"Reduced acres and lower nutrient applications translate directly to less food in the supply chain," said Zippy Duvall, president of the AFBF.

The strain is already visible in planting decisions. Corn, a nitrogen-intensive crop, lost 3 per cent of intended acreage in the USDA's March 31 Prospective Plantings report, with many farmers shifting toward soybeans. More than 80 per cent of rice, cotton and peanut growers say they cannot afford adequate fertilizer, placing those crops at the greatest risk of yield losses.

The AFBF is urging the federal government to extend supply-chain protections to fertilizer imports alongside fuel. Farm debt is projected to reach a record level in 2026, and corn break-even prices are at or above current market values.

USDA supply and demand estimates due in May, and an acreage update on June 30, will offer a clearer measure of how far the damage extends.