The Fertilizer Crisis Has No Quick Fix

New NDSU research models three price scenarios showing urea stays elevated into 2028 regardless of how quickly trade lanes reopen

11 May 2026

Researchers at North Dakota State University have modelled three scenarios for the U.S. fertilizer market following disruptions to Persian Gulf trade routes, finding that prices for urea, the world's most widely used nitrogen fertilizer, are unlikely to return to normal before 2028 under any of them.

Under the central "contested transit" pathway, urea is projected to peak at $784 per short ton, up 67 per cent from the pre-crisis price of $470. The most severe scenario, extended conflict, puts the figure at $996 by October 2026, more than double. Even the most optimistic case, assuming a swift reopening of shipping lanes, still sees urea peak at $782 per ton.

The Persian Gulf accounts for roughly 40 per cent of globally traded urea and more than a quarter of world ammonia exports. Documented damage to Iran's South Pars petrochemical complex and Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG hub has taken key production capacity offline. Analysts note that physical infrastructure takes time to repair, meaning supply cannot recover quickly even if maritime routes reopen soon.

American farmers are already under strain.

A survey of more than 5,700 growers by the American Farm Bureau Federation found roughly 70 per cent cannot afford all the fertilizer they need this season, with 94 per cent reporting that their finances have stayed the same or worsened. NDSU modelling projects a urea-to-corn affordability ratio of 174 bushels per short ton under the central scenario, against 110 at the 2022 price peak and a long-run average of 79.

Calls for structural remedies are growing louder. Domestic production expansion, new fertilizer efficiency technologies, and revised farm support policy are all under discussion. How quickly any of these materialise remains an open question.